Pundits were out in full force prior to the mid-term election on November 8, 2022. Emboldened by what some of them believed were preeminent concerns among voters, such as inflation, crime on the streets, and a southern border that is not secure, they enthusiastically predicted a “red wave” that would overwhelm Democrats in both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate. Unfortunately, these experts were not even close in their prognostications. Democrats not only survived, but even thrived in many states and congressional districts.
The eminent biologist J.B.S. Haldane suggested that there are four stages of acceptance in the advancement of science:
· This is worthless nonsense.
· This is an interesting and perverse point of view.
· This is true, but quite unimportant.
· I always said so.
In the segment of the cognoscente known as political punditry, it did not take long after November 8 for the experts to change course rapidly to arrive at the equivalent of Haldane’s Stage 4. Not too surprisingly, they basically claimed to suspect well beforehand what the eventual outcome of the election would be. More importantly, rather than dwell on rear view mirror images, the main weighty intellectual task lies ahead, i.e., to predict what will happen in the upcoming 2024 presidential election by identifying who is going to run, who can win, and what the price of a pound of bananas will be on election day.
ASAHP’s Executive Director, John Colbert, offered a detailed, comprehensive explanation on October 20, 2022 during a plenary session presentation at the Association’s Annual Conference regarding what to expect on election day—November 8. Not only did he provide forecasts that actually materialized, he also was able to look ahead at some ramifications of what to expect for the 2024 election. For example, one topic of particular interest to the health professions education community is reauthorization of the Higher Education Act (HEA). It was last reauthorized in 2008 for a five-year period.
If legislative action is taken on the HEA in the 118th Congress that begins in 2023, it can be anticipated that the House and Senate will produce vastly different proposals, with the new House Republican majority focused on blocking the Administration’s proposal to cancel up to $20,000 in student loan debt for certain borrowers, as well as placing a cap on overall student borrowing, eliminating public service loan forgiveness, and requiring institutions to have “skin in the game,” holding them accountable for successful student outcomes. A narrowly divided Senate will require Democrats and Republicans to produce a bipartisan proposal, which in recent Congresses has proven elusive due to disagreements between the parties over both Title IV student financial aid, as well as Title IX protections.