What COVID-19 Epidemiologic Models Can And Cannot Tell Us
Epidemiologic models are critical planning tools for policymakers, clinicians, and public health practitioners. Infectious disease modeling is an expansive field with a long history, encompassing a range of methods and assumptions that are not necessarily directly comparable, or even designed for the same purpose. An article published on May 15, 2020 in the New England Journal of Medicine identifies the following questions to ask about model results: (1) What is the purpose and time frame of this model? For example, is it a purely statistical model intended to provide short-term forecasts or a mechanistic model investigating future scenarios? These two types of models have different limitations; (2) What are the basic model assumptions? What is being assumed about immunity and asymptomatic transmission, for example? How are contact parameters included? (3) How is uncertainty being displayed? For statistical models, how are confidence intervals calculated and displayed? Uncertainty should increase as we move into the future. For mechanistic models, what parameters are being varied? Reliable modeling descriptions usually will include a table of parameter ranges to check to see whether those ranges make sense; (4) If the model is fitted to data, which data are used? Models fitted to confirmed COVID-19 cases are unlikely to be reliable. Models fitted to hospitalization or death data may be more reliable, but their reliability will depend on the setting; and (5) Is the model general, or does it reflect a particular context? If the latter, is the spatial scale — national, regional, or local — appropriate for the modeling questions being asked and are the assumptions relevant for the setting? Population density will play an important role in determining model appropriateness, for example, and contact-rate parameters are likely to be context-specific. The article can be obtained here.
Supporting Student Health And Mental Well-Being
Recent surveys of college and university presidents show there is real concern about how the disruption of in-person classes will affect students' already-rising rates of anxiety and depression. The April 2020 Pulse Point Survey by the American Council on Education (ACE) of these administrators suggests that a little over a third of presidents surveyed plan on making more investments in student mental health due to COVID-19. The brief, “Mental Health, Higher Education, and COVID-19: Strategies for Leaders to Support Campus Well-Being” reflects on data and offers examples and resources to help guide decision-making, including ways that leadership can adopt an equity lens with each mental health strategy. It also identifies three major strategies for leaders to consider as they respond to support student mental health during COVID-19 and beyond: (1) Ensure that communication to students is consistent, caring, and clear; (2) Consider the mental health and well-being of all campus community members, including faculty and staff who are on the front lines of serving and supporting students; and (3) Inform decision-making through assessments. The brief can be obtained here.
Caregiving In The United States 2020
A report from AARP on the state of caregiving in the U.S. finds that nearly one in five adults is an unpaid caregiver for an adult with health or other functional problems, up from around one in six in 2015. Nearly a quarter of individuals caring for more than one person indicate they are having difficulty coordinating care; that they're caring for someone with Alzheimer's disease or dementia; or that their health has gotten worse as a result of their caregiving duties. The report can be obtained here.
More May 2020 TRENDS Articles
RESEARCH AND EDUCATION AFTER THE PANDEMIC
Indicates the importance of recognizing how “confounding” as a source of bias threatens the process of causal inference in research practice. Read More
PRESIDENT’S CORNER
ASAHP President Phyllis King presents information about the Association’s five strategic objective areas and associated success measures. Read More
HEROES ACT PASSED IN HOUSE
Contains details about a proposed piece of legislation to furnish additional financial assistance to deal with economic consequences resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Read More
HEALTH REFORM DEVELOPMENTS
Points out how the federal-state Medicaid program is being augmented to provide insurance coverage and paid sick leave benefits for individuals negatively affected by job loss. Read More
DEVELOPMENTS IN HIGHER EDUCATION
Describes how Mad magazine’s Alfred E. Neuman’s motto of Quid Me Anxious Sum serves as a motivational factor for enjoying life once governmental lock-down provisions are relaxed and also how coronavirus stimulus funding is being distributed to colleges and universities. Read More
QUICK STAT (SHORT, TIMELY, AND TOPICAL)
Births: Provisional Data for 2019
Effects Of The COVID-19 Pandemic On Routine Pediatric Vaccine Ordering And Administration
Non-Invasive And Reversible Modulation Of Neuronal Activity To Diagnose And Treat Brain Disorders
Cracking Nature’s Most Common Chemical Bond To Improve Drug Effectiveness Read More
AVAILABLE RESOURCES ACCESSIBLE ELECTRONICALLY
What COVID-19 Epidemiologic Models Can And Cannot Tell Us
Supporting Student Health And Mental Well-Being
Caregiving In The United States 2020 Read More
RETHINKING THE “BENCH” AND “BEDSIDE” DICHOTOMY
Mentions how research activities might be understood better in the context of “discovery-invention” cycles rather than a basic/applied dichotomy that translates loosely to notions of bench and bedside research. Read More
ADDRESSING THE 60-30-10 CHALLENGE
Refers to a study that discusses how 60% of health care adheres to guidelines; 30% is represented by care that is waste, duplication, or low value; and 10% accounts for iatrogenic harm or adverse events. Read More